As Bitcoin hovers precariously above the $100,000 threshold and altcoins struggle to maintain momentum, traders are left pondering a crucial question: Is the cryptocurrency bull market coming to an end? Systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade) provided a thoughtful analysis in a market breakdown shared on June 22, suggesting that the situation is not straightforward. His assessment, grounded in technical analysis, highlights both the geopolitical risks involved and the importance of positioning and price structure.
Bakay noted that, when examining the monthly and weekly timeframes, the market remains technically in an uptrend, as no significant swing lows have been breached and the 365-day rolling volume-weighted average price (VWAP) has held steady during the April pullback. However, he expressed concern over the failure to reach new all-time highs similar to those seen in 2021, particularly in light of institutional accumulation by firms like BlackRock, which now holds approximately 3.5% of Bitcoin's total supply. This contrast between robust institutional interest and a market struggling to gain momentum has prompted Bakay to adopt a more cautious trading approach, focusing primarily on short-term trades.
Bakay's trading strategy is centered on two potential scenarios: either a reclaim of the $100,000 support level—likely if tensions in the Middle East do not escalate—or a decline to the $97,000 to $95,000 range, where significant technical support is established by the 200-day moving average and local price structure. Despite these concerns, he clarified that he is not currently contemplating short positions, citing a decrease in open interest and early signs of renewed spot bid interest since the lows observed in April.
The options market is also signaling caution, with the 25-delta risk reversal skew currently around -5, indicating a trend towards negativity but not yet at panic levels. On the Ethereum front, Bakay was candid about its recent performance, stating that while ETH nearly experienced a breakout, it ultimately disappointed investors. He attributed this failure in part to the rapid emergence of the "DeFi Summer 2025" narrative, suggesting that overly optimistic sentiment led to market corrections.
Bakay pointed out that the technical outlook for Ethereum is also concerning. He explained that during significant market movements, it is unfavorable to witness price retracements in previously active areas. He identified the next substantial support level at approximately $1,800, noting that Ethereum is currently positioned at a critical support confluence involving both the 90-day rolling VWAP and what he refers to as a pivotal level. Similar to Bitcoin, he believes Ethereum's short-term trajectory is closely tied to developments in the Middle East.
In terms of positioning, Bakay observed signs of an oversold environment for ETH, although he noted that high volatility in Ethereum options has led traders to favor spread strategies over outright directional bets. He indicated that current positioning suggests a potential upside reversal in both perpetual and spot markets.
Unfortunately, altcoins are not faring any better. Bakay remarked that altcoins have been struggling for some time, with any signs of improvement quickly followed by setbacks. He highlighted the lack of a significant rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, with current interest shifting more towards crypto-related equities that align with ETF-driven macro trends. Even prominent altcoins like Solana are showing weakness, with Bakay noting that SOL has nearly retraced its entire rally from April. He emphasized the importance of the $100 level, warning that there is minimal technical support below this threshold.
Bakay briefly mentioned two emerging altcoins, Hype and Fartcoin, noting that one presents a solid product while the other generates interest through volatility and liquidity. He suggested that Fartcoin could become appealing if it reclaims the $1 or $0.50 levels, while Hype could find support below $30.
In conclusion, Bakay offered a pragmatic perspective, acknowledging the challenging market conditions compounded by geopolitical uncertainty. He cautioned that markets can be significantly influenced by single news events. While he senses that the market may be overly short at present, he remains acutely aware of the risk of a prolonged correction. He advised against attempting to "catch a falling knife," advocating instead for a strategy focused on waiting for positive developments and signs of reversal in lower timeframes. Ultimately, Bakay does not declare the market's peak but emphasizes that this is not a time for reckless bravado; rather, it calls for restraint, stringent risk management, and a respect for volatility, particularly as bullish momentum wavers.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $101,847.
