A recent analysis of the XRP/BTC trading pair, published on June 12 by market analyst Dr. Cat, has sparked renewed debate within the cryptocurrency community. The expert contends that despite a challenging six-week downturn, there remains a favorable outlook for XRP, which he believes could eventually outperform Bitcoin. He assigns a significant 70 percent probability to this scenario.
Central to Dr. Cat's analysis is the critical support level at 2,041 satoshis, where three Ichimoku timeframes—monthly, bi-monthly, and tri-monthly—converge. He acknowledges that the price has been consistently breaking through support levels without any bullish response, indicating a lack of buying interest. However, he emphasizes that this particular support level is crucial for XRP's potential recovery.
The one-month chart indicates that prices are currently hovering just below this critical threshold. Dr. Cat warns that if XRP closes beneath this level on a monthly basis, it could trigger a fully bearish trend, leading the pair into unpredictable and possibly volatile trading ranges. Nevertheless, he remains optimistic, asserting that XRP bulls have a historical advantage, as the price has demonstrated resilience and a pattern of higher lows over the past three years.
Dr. Cat anticipates that this consolidation will enable XRP to make at least a minor upward movement in August, targeting the 3,000-satoshi region—a potential increase of about 45 percent from current levels. He also suggests that a more significant upward movement could occur as the overall market cycle progresses.
However, the analyst does caution that there is a 30 percent chance of a significant decline if XRP fails to maintain the 2,041 satoshi level on a monthly close. In such a bearish scenario, the price could fall to between 1,800 and 1,900 satoshis, possibly leading to a weak rebound or a gradual decline toward the lower range from which it initially surged. In this case, he does not expect a major bullish rally until at least the fourth quarter of 2025.
For the time being, the market is closely watching this pivotal level. If XRP holds above 2,041 satoshis, Dr. Cat believes it has a clear path to outperform Bitcoin, first in minor increments and then more substantially. Conversely, falling below this support would lead to a chaotic and unpredictable trading environment. As of the latest update, XRP is trading at $2.1287.
