Ethereum is currently experiencing a significant surge, which crypto analyst Kevin from Kev Capital describes as a "once-in-a-decade" convergence of bullish indicators. In a video update released on August 12, he revisited his earlier predictions from May regarding an "ETH season" and explained how the ongoing rally aligns closely with his forecasts, while also cautioning that a crucial technical resistance level remains unbroken.
Two months prior, during a period of extreme pessimism surrounding Ethereum, Kevin issued a warning based on various charts, including ETH/USD, ETH dominance, and ETH/BTC. He stated, "We were likely the first to signal these warning signs on ETH… it was so evident and historically significant." Since then, Ethereum has surged over 150%, with associated assets such as Chainlink, Uniswap, and Ethereum Classic experiencing substantial gains as well.
According to Kevin, the initial catalyst for this rally was a rare monthly demand candle forming at a critical support level, a pattern that has historically foreshadowed substantial price increases. This was further supported by several momentum indicators shifting from extreme oversold conditions. He highlighted the monthly Stock RSI's "V-shaped turnaround," the MACD histogram tightening since late 2019, and a reversal in whale money flow from record lows in Ethereum's history. "We are now witnessing the monthly MACD cross at the peak of this pattern… right at the zero line," he remarked, suggesting this as a pivotal point for a potential breakout.
In terms of ETH dominance, Kevin observed a similar alignment of indicators: oversold RSI and Stock RSI, an upcoming MACD crossover, and prices reaching the same support level that supported the 2019–2020 cycle. He believes this bottom indicates the onset of a sustained period of Ethereum outperformance, likely benefiting altcoins as well. The ETH/BTC chart further confirmed this timing, with Kevin asserting, "The leading altcoin has paved the way… the bottom is clearly established."
However, Kevin emphasized that Ethereum has not yet entered a phase of unrestricted price discovery. The primary resistance level is its previous all-time high of approximately $4,850. "We are not out of the woods yet… it’s unwise to invest at significant historical resistance levels. That strategy can lead to losses," he cautioned, also noting that the broader "Total 2" market cap chart for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin, indicates a critical zone of $1.71–$1.72 trillion as the last significant barrier. Until these levels are breached on higher time frames, he perceives the market as being in a high-risk, high-reward situation.
Macro-economic conditions may also influence this scenario. With CME FedWatch indicating a greater than 90% chance of a US interest rate cut in September, along with additional cuts anticipated in October and December, Kevin suggests that the combination of easing monetary policy and technical breakout patterns could foster an environment conducive to altcoin outperformance. Nevertheless, he warned that macroeconomic disruptions could disrupt momentum, advising traders to prepare for pullbacks rather than chasing prices into resistance.
For the time being, Kevin recognizes an exceptional technical alignment that he believes has already made a significant impact. "The calls we made regarding ETH dominance and ETH versus Bitcoin have unfolded remarkably well… I anticipate pullbacks, but overall, we are in the latter stages of this bull market," he stated. The potential for this latter phase to lead to price discovery hinges on one key figure: $4,850. Until then, Ethereum's extraordinary bullish signal remains potent but not fully realized. As of the latest update, ETH was trading at $4,624.
