Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing volatility amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, with its price declining from $110,530 on June 9 to just above $106,900 today. This decline has raised concerns about a potential halt in BTC's upward momentum. However, on-chain analytics indicate that both Bitcoin whales and retail investors still foresee further growth for the leading cryptocurrency.
Recent insights from a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost reveal that inflows of Bitcoin to the Binance exchange from both whales and retail investors have dropped to their lowest levels in the current market cycle. Darkfost presented a chart demonstrating that whale inflows to Binance have not been this low since 2024, while retail investor inflows have also seen a significant decrease, suggesting a preference for holding rather than selling. This synchronized behavior between whales and retail investors is viewed as a "highly constructive signal for the market."
Darkfost noted that aside from the consistent inflows at the beginning of the current cycle, there have been two prior instances where both groups acted in unison, typically coinciding with market peaks. These peaks were characterized by synchronized BTC inflows into exchanges, resulting in increased selling pressure and eventual market demand exhaustion. On the recent decline in BTC inflows, Darkfost suggested that market participants might be awaiting clearer macroeconomic signals or displaying strong confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. This alignment among investor classes may also indicate broader market optimism, with expectations for further profits.
Recent trading activities further support this perspective. In a separate post on X, experienced crypto analyst Ash Crypto pointed out that a Bitcoin whale has opened a substantial $200 million long position with 20x leverage.
Despite the positive signals from decreased BTC inflows to major exchanges like Binance, some analysts caution that a deeper market correction could be on the horizon. TradingView analyst MIRZA has predicted that BTC could potentially dip as low as $85,000. Similarly, veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a warning that BTC might face a significant decline in the coming months, suggesting that if it follows the trajectory of the 2021-22 market cycle, it could plummet to as low as $23,600. However, it's worth noting that BTC outflows from exchanges are on the rise, reducing available reserves—a situation that could lead to a supply shock. Currently, BTC is trading at $106,920, reflecting a 1.8% increase over the past 24 hours.
