Bitcoin is currently facing a highly volatile market influenced by escalating conflicts in the Middle East and increasing macroeconomic risks that are capturing global attention. Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin (BTC) remains resilient, trading above the $104,000 mark, which indicates robust buyer interest at critical support levels. While bullish sentiment prevails for now, factors such as rising US Treasury yields, ongoing inflationary pressures, and geopolitical instability present significant threats that could drive BTC below the pivotal $100,000 threshold.
The market sentiment is mixed regarding future movements. Some analysts highlight strong fundamentals and growing institutional adoption as potential catalysts for a major bull run, while others caution about the likelihood of a deeper correction before any upward trend resumes. Notably, top analyst Darkfost has pointed out the importance of analyzing on-chain metrics during these uncertain times. According to data from CryptoQuant, the realized profits from Bitcoin, measured over a seven-day moving average, do not currently indicate any alarming trends. With profit-taking activity remaining below $1 billion—similar to levels observed following the October 2024 correction—it appears that investors are not in a state of panic nor excessive optimism.
In the face of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, concerns about a broader conflict and potential US involvement are affecting global markets. Investors are feeling uneasy, with rising oil prices and diminishing economic confidence contributing to macroeconomic instability. However, Bitcoin appears to be largely unaffected by these geopolitical tensions. The cryptocurrency is consolidating just below its all-time high, demonstrating resilience that leaves both bulls and bears contemplating their next strategies. Fundamentally, Bitcoin continues to show strength, with increasing institutional adoption and decreasing exchange supply reflecting a trend toward long-term holding and accumulation off exchanges.
On-chain data from Darkfost reveals that realized profits from Bitcoin, based on a seven-day moving average, do not suggest any significant warning signals. Current profit levels remain under $1 billion, a range not seen since the end of the October 2024 correction. Even during the recent all-time high surge, realized profits stayed well below the peak observed in January 2025. This lack of aggressive profit-taking indicates that most investors are maintaining their positions, neither panicking nor rushing to sell, which plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's ongoing consolidation. Without a surge in profit realization, there is little pressure to drive the market down, yet no strong catalyst exists to propel it higher either. Keeping an eye on these on-chain signals will be vital in the upcoming days.
The 12-hour chart for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) indicates that the asset is currently trading at $104,292, slightly above a crucial support level at $103,600. This area, corresponding to the previous all-time high set in late 2024, has become a significant battleground for bulls and bears. BTC has consistently bounced from this level in recent weeks, and its ability to maintain this position may determine the direction of the next major movement. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break through the $109,300 resistance, forming a series of lower highs since reaching $112,000, which suggests a weakening bullish momentum. The current price action is critical, particularly around the 50-period simple moving average (SMA), which is now acting as short-term dynamic resistance.
Trading volume has remained relatively stable but showed slight increases during recent pullbacks, indicating cautious selling rather than outright capitulation. Additionally, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs, currently positioned at $104,065 and $94,617 respectively, provide further support beneath the current trading range, with the 100-SMA aligning directly with the $103,600 level. If Bitcoin breaks and closes below this demand zone with volume confirmation, it could trigger a decline towards the psychological support at $100,000. Conversely, a strong rebound from this level would reinforce ongoing consolidation and maintain the potential for another attempt at the $109,300 resistance.
