Analysts are increasingly suggesting that the cryptocurrency market may be entering an altseason, as Ethereum experiences significant gains and a variety of altcoins surge. Recent bullish momentum has driven many digital assets upward, with price patterns indicating a robust market. For many traders, this moment represents the long-awaited shift where altcoins outperform Bitcoin, potentially yielding substantial returns.
The recent breakout of Ethereum above critical resistance levels has further fueled this narrative, with both large-cap and mid-cap altcoins following suit. This renewed market optimism has led to speculation that the altseason cycle, characterized by capital migrating from Bitcoin to a wider array of altcoins, might already be in progress. However, not all analysts share this optimistic outlook. Some caution that Bitcoin’s ongoing dominance and the fact that many altcoins remain significantly below their all-time highs warrant a more measured perspective.
Historically, altseasons have been marked by pronounced outperformance across the board, a trend that has yet to be fully confirmed in the current market. Leading analyst Darkfost asserts that the anticipated altseason has not genuinely commenced. By analyzing comparative performance among Bitcoin, large-cap, and mid/small-cap altcoins, he indicates that the current cycle exhibits the weakest performance for altcoins to date. While altcoins have made notable gains recently, these remain modest compared to Bitcoin’s dominant advance.
The last significant altseason occurred in early 2024, when mid- and small-cap altcoins outperformed Bitcoin for a brief but intense period, signaling a clear capital shift from BTC to the broader market and delivering exceptional returns for altcoin investors. Nevertheless, current market conditions suggest that a similar widespread outperformance has yet to occur. Although Ethereum has surpassed multi-year highs and several altcoins are reporting impressive gains, the rally appears to be selective rather than encompassing.
Large-cap cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering, while mid- and small-cap coins—typically indicative of a vigorous altseason—continue to lag behind. This divergence indicates that both institutional and retail investments remain concentrated in more established assets. For a confirmed altseason, analysts will be monitoring for a sustained improvement in mid- and small-cap performance relative to Bitcoin. Until such a shift is observed, the current market may be more accurately described as a strong altcoin rally within Bitcoin’s prevailing dominance rather than the onset of a full-scale altseason.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2), is demonstrating robust bullish momentum, currently valued at $1.57 trillion following a sharp 13.21% increase over the past week. This surge positions the market close to testing its 2025 highs around the $1.6 trillion mark—a crucial resistance level that has previously limited altcoin growth. The market trend has been consistently upward since early 2024, with prices maintaining positions above the 50-week moving average and exhibiting a bullish structure.
Both the 100-week and 200-week moving averages are trending upward, reinforcing long-term support and indicating healthy market conditions. Should a breakout occur, TOTAL2 could aim for the previous all-time high range near $1.75 to $1.8 trillion, signaling a potential acceleration of capital moving from Bitcoin into altcoins. Conversely, failing to overcome this resistance could result in a short-term retreat toward the $1.4 trillion support level, consistent with the 50-week moving average. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether an actual altseason will ignite.
