Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent for 2024-25 may have hit a pause just as many traders anticipated an early-summer surge, according to crypto analyst Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX). In a detailed thread shared today, the Ichimoku-focused technician asserts that the market has established a “valid cycle high” on the weekly chart and has now transitioned into neutral territory, potentially delaying the next significant breakout until mid-July or, at the latest, the first quarter of 2026.
Dr Cat highlighted that he had cautioned multiple times about the impossibility of a bullish outlook on the weekly chart before June 9. He pointed out that the Chiko Span (CS) “entered the candles” last week, removing the bullish bias from the weekly timeframe, despite the long-term monthly structure remaining intact. He acknowledged that while the monthly chart is bullish, the immediate upward path has become limited to two distinct time frames.
The first potential window for a breakout opens in the week starting June 16. If Bitcoin begins that week above $99,881 and closes with the CS breaking clearly above the candle range, Dr Cat believes a significant price surge, potentially reaching $270,000, could commence. Conversely, if the price opens below that level, a typical CS tracing pattern would likely be in motion, pushing the next breakout target to the week starting July 14 or the following week.
Dr Cat explained that these specific points are where the CS can effectively break above the candles concluding a CS tracing. If Bitcoin drops below $93,200, where the weekly Kijun Sen currently stands, the bullish countdown will be nullified. He cautioned that if the Kijun Sen at $93.2K is breached, traders should foresee a much later breakout, pointing to a broader monthly window between November 2025 and April 2026 when the Kijun Sen is anticipated to slope upward again. Until that time, he expressed doubt about whether the bottom has been reached, identifying the $97–98K range as a short-term convergence zone where the daily Kumo cloud, weekly Tenkan Sen, and two-day Kijun Sen intersect.
The analysis comes at a sensitive time for market sentiment. Bitcoin’s all-time high in April, exceeding $111,999, has resisted multiple retests, and funding rates on major derivatives platforms have shifted from euphoric to merely positive. Dr Cat noted that such moderation aligns with Ichimoku’s Kihon Suchi 17-period rhythm, indicating that a fresh consolidation phase is statistically probable.
Altcoins are set to face an even tougher challenge. In a related post analyzing the TOTAL3 index (the market capitalization of all crypto assets excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), Dr Cat argued that “altcoins are not ready to pump on the weekly and need a minimum of 1-2 months for that, even in the most bullish scenario.” He identified four overlapping bearish factors: price falling below the weekly Kijun Sen, a negative Tenkan–Kijun cross, a Chiko Span trapped beneath the candle “forest,” and a Kijun Sen likely to decline next week.
He assessed the likelihood of a bullish altcoin surge in June to be around 5%, noting an equal chance that Bitcoin alone might rally while “dominance destroys alts.” This bleak outlook extends to Ethereum and other large-cap cryptocurrencies. Dr Cat remarked that expecting a parabolic bull run above all-time highs in June for TOTAL3 shows a lack of insight.
According to him, the first genuine “window of opportunity for altcoin bulls” will not open until August, when the weekly CS will face a lighter overhang of historic candles. Market implications depend on whether Bitcoin can maintain its higher-timeframe pivots long enough to sync with those temporal windows. Currently, the $93,200 Kijun Sen represents the dividing line between a controlled pause and a deeper retracement. A weekly close beneath it would “activate” the November-to-April contingency track, effectively postponing any move towards Dr Cat’s projected $270,000 until the next halving cycle. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $103,072.
